Voters across the Sun Belt say that Donald J. Trump improved their lives when he was president — and worry that a Kamala Harris White House would not — setting the stage for an extraordinarily competitive contest in three key states, according to the latest polls from The New York Times and Siena College.
The polls found that Mr. Trump has gained a lead in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia, two states that he lost to President Biden in 2020. But in North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, Ms. Harris trails Mr. Trump by just a narrow margin.
The polls of these three states, taken from Sept. 17 to 21, presented further evidence that in a sharply divided nation, the presidential contest is shaping up to be one of the tightest in history.
[These latest Times/Siena results are some of the best results for Donald Trump in these states for weeks, Nate Cohn writes.]
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SKIP ADVERTISEMENTArizona, Georgia and North Carolina are on the roster of seven battleground states where the focus of both the Trump and Harris campaigns has been since Labor Day. Ms. Harris has shown relative strength in several key states across the Midwest and, most critically to her hopes of becoming president, Pennsylvania.
But Arizona, which Mr. Biden won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, now presents a challenge for the Harris campaign. Mr. Trump is ahead, 50 percent to 45 percent, the poll found. A Times/Siena poll there in August found Ms. Harris leading by five percentage points. Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from Ms. Harris, though a significant number — 10 percent — said they were now undecided. And Mr. Trump is benefiting from ticket splitting there: While Ms. Harris is trailing, the poll shows that the Democratic candidate for Senate is ahead.
How the polls compare Ariz. Ga. N.C. Times/SienaLikely voters, Sept. 17 to 21
Trump +5 Trump +4 Trump +3 Polling average As of 5 a.m. Sept. 23voters, As of 5 a.m. Sept. 23
Trump +2 Trump +2 Even Emerson College/The HillLikely voters, Sept. 15–18
Trump +1 Trump +2 Even Cygnal Political/Carolina JournalLikely voters, Sept. 15–16
No poll No poll Even Quinnipiac UniversityLikely voters, Sept. 4–8
No poll Trump +3 Harris +3 Data Orbital/AZ Free NewsLikely voters, Sept. 7–9
Even No poll No poll CNN/SSRSLikely voters, Aug. 23–29
Trump +5 Harris +1 No pollNotes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 23.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
How polls have changed since the debate Arizona MarginPre-Debate MarginPost-Debate Times/Siena Among likely voters in Arizona Harris +5 Trump +5 Polling average Among all recent Arizona polls Trump <1 Trump +2 Georgia Times/Siena Among likely voters in Georgia Trump +4 Trump +4 Polling average Among all recent Georgia polls Trump <1 Trump +2 North Carolina Times/Siena Among likely voters in North Carolina Harris +2 Trump +3 Polling average Among all recent North Carolina polls Harris +1 Even Polls Find Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina - The New York TimesNotes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 23.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
The New York Times/Siena College PollARIZ., GA., N.C.
Do you think Donald Trump’s policies have helped people like you, hurt people like you, or haven’t made much of a difference either way?
All respondents Helped 45% No difference 19 Hurt 34 Democrats 22 74 Independents 43% 25 30 Republicans 87% 11Do you think Kamala Harris’s policies would help people like you, hurt people like you, or wouldn’t make much of a difference either way?
All respondents Help 37% No difference 18 Hurt 42 Democrats 84% 14 Independents 30% 24 42 Republicans 13 82 Polls Find Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina - The New York TimesNote: The unlabeled segment in gray refers to the share of likely voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia and 682 voters in North Carolina conducted from Sept. 17 to 21.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
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